Fundamental credit research across high yield and leveraged loans

Q3 cleared every test I set on 10/28 and I raised the target to $378, but the stock got to $360.78, 13.3x my FY27 EBITDA and the peer median. The bull and bear cases are now about the same size.

BUY at $259.97 with a $329 target. An SEC inquiry, short reports, four quarters of slowing growth and a weak summer have taken the stock from $738 to 10.5x FY27 EBITDA against a 13.3x peer median, and my base case only needs consensus numbers.

Buy the 2033 Term Loan B at 97.6 for S+200 and watch the 6.875% 2034s at 94.7. On spread the loan gives up only ~60bp for a first lien, and its documents limit what can go ahead of it.

A progress update: moving to bond indentures, reading 808 of them with a model on my laptop, a mistake I made about the ones it got wrong, a small classifier experiment that didn't go the way I expected, and the first scores against labels I've checked myself.

The covenant extractor: how it reads a credit agreement, how it's scored against labels I haven't reviewed yet, what 184 documents cost to run, and where it's still wrong.

Building a complete financial dataset out of primary sources: point-in-time fundamentals and full statements for every US filer, Treasury and Fed credit history, and a corpus of credit agreements underneath structured covenant terms that cite the exact line they came from.